March 17, 2026 Stock Market Briefing | Oil Prices Surpass $100 · GTC Announcement Completed · Pressure to Postpone US-China Summit

A. Overall Global Index Data

Source: Bloomberg, Investing.com, Daum Finance, The Korea Economic Daily (As of March 15–16, 2026)

B. Why did the market move like this yesterday?

There are three structural trends behind the fact that the KOSPI recorded +1.14% while the three major U.S. indices fell together.

First is the blockade of Hormuz and the surge in oil prices.
As the Iranian Revolutionary Guard blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude oil shipments pass,
WTI crude oil rose to $102.44. Experts warn that if the lockdown is prolonged...
They are even warning of the possibility of a surge to $120–$150 per barrel.
Oil prices surpassing $100 re-accelerates inflation → Delays Fed interest rate cuts →
It creates a chain reaction of shocks leading to valuation pressure on growth and technology stocks.

Second is the vicious cycle of high oil prices and interest rate freezes.
The market sees a 99% probability that interest rates will be kept unchanged at this FOMC meeting (March 20).
The key is Chairman Powell's tone of voice rather than the freeze itself.
The fact that the won/dollar exchange rate reached 1,497.5 won, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis,
It reflects this anxiety exactly.

Third, the paradoxical rebound of the KOSPI.
Even though foreigners net sold approximately 129.5 billion won on the KOSPI,
Buying pressure from individuals (+45.8 billion) and institutions (+81.6 billion) absorbed this, pushing the index up.
This is the result of a combined effect of bargain buying centered on semiconductor stocks and expectations for GTC.
However, as long as foreign selling pressure persists structurally, the sustainability of the rebound is limited.

C. 🆕 New Risk — Pressure to Postpone US-China Summit

In an interview with the British Financial Times (FT) on March 15 (local time), President Trump
"China obtains 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, so we must help it," he said.
If China does not agree to dispatch warships
They publicly pressured that the U.S.-China summit scheduled for March 31 to April 2 in Beijing could be postponed .
Trump urged China to make a decision before the meeting, saying “two weeks is a long time,” and
White House secretaries also raised the pressure on the same day by mentioning the possibility of a postponement.

In response to this, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed rumors of a postponement on March 16, stating that "communications are underway between the two countries," but
As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng coordinate the agenda in Paris
Given that Trump has effectively made cooperation regarding Hormuz a prerequisite for the summit
The negotiations have encountered a new obstacle.

Looking at the bigger picture, Trump, in the FT interview, regarding Iran
It is also important that they refused to declare victory, judging that they were “not ready for negotiations yet.”
The possibility that the war with Iran will continue for at least four more weeks has materialized, and
Analysis suggests that the postponement of the U.S.-China summit is effectively being used as a diplomatic tool to prolong the war .

D. GTC 2026 Keynote Speech — Jensen Huang's Declaration

At 3 AM KST on March 17, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, during his GTC 2026 keynote speech
It was declared that “AI is an infrastructure that every company utilizes and every country must build.”
The key points of the announcement are as follows.

Source: Nate News, ZDNet Korea, Maeil Business Newspaper, minstudio.app (As of March 17, 2026)

E. FOMC (March 20) — Powell's words are key, not the interest rate freeze.

The FOMC decision to be announced in the early hours of March 20 is virtually confirmed to keep interest rates unchanged (3.5–3.75%).
If hawkish remarks are made stating that “inflation concerns remain” in a situation where oil prices have surpassed $100,
Further correction pressure is being applied to growth stocks across the board.
Conversely, the dovish signal that "we are prepared to respond to downside risks to the economy" is
This could serve as a pretext for a short-term rebound.
Amid the complex variables of a prolonged war and high oil prices, all eyes of the market are focused on Powell's choice.

F. ⚠️ Overlapping Risks — Why Now Is Dangerous

G. 🌙 4 Things You Must Check Tonight