Geopolitical risk
Investment Strategy
2026.03.15
Request to dispatch warships to the Strait of Hormuz to Korea!! Will my stocks be okay?
On March 15, 2026, Trump posted a message asking five countries, including South Korea, to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't just someone else's story, is it? Let's examine this from an investment perspective.
On March 13, the KOSPI fell to 5,487. This means my retirement pension and stock accounts are wavering.
With Aleph’s urgent analysis, we will examine “where to sell and where to buy.”
Even if the market is in a panic, you can find your way by looking at the data. Let's take a look with Aleph.
1Current Status at a Glance
For those who find it difficult to read the news every day, I will start with a three-line summary.
① The United States launched an airstrike on Iran , ② Iran retaliated with drones and missiles, and
③ The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, is facing a blockade crisis .
It is a situation where the 'arteries' of the global economy could get blocked.
The fact that the exchange rate has exceeded 1,500 won is a signal that foreign investors are choosing to “flee Korea.”
When foreigners sell, the KOSPI falls further, and then they sell more... This vicious cycle cut the KOSPI in half during the 2008 financial crisis.
2Why is the Strait of Hormuz related to my salary, you ask?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway through which about 20% of the world's crude oil passes.
What if this strait is blocked? The prices of the electricity, gas, and gasoline we use will rise one after another.
Companies face rising costs, declining profits, and falling stock prices.
Korea is particularly hard hit because it imports 99% of its energy.
In fact, Deloitte Research already identified “supply chain instability, soaring energy prices, and geopolitical divisions” as the biggest potential risks this year at the beginning of the year.
The scary thing is that all those predictions are coming true.
3 KOSPI & S&P 500, How Much Further Can They Fall?
Now, from here on, let's talk about numbers a little more seriously.
This is the result of an analysis applying past Middle Eastern war cases (Gulf War 1991, Iraq War 2003) and current index levels.
Please read this not as an investment recommendation, but as a scenario showing that 'such a phase could exist.'
5,980 pt
5,440 pt
68%
4,510 pt
4,200 pt
72%
Korea is a '100% energy import country' and, as an export-oriented economy, it takes an immediate hit from a global economic slowdown.
On top of that, it has a structure that makes it easy for foreign capital to flow out. Simply put, it has a constitution that is “particularly vulnerable to external shocks.”
📋 Expected results for 3 scenarios
| scenario | Probability | Oil prices | KOSPI forecast | react |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armistice and Negotiations Concluded | 20% | $75~85 | 5,800~6,200 rebound | Split buying of blue-chip stocks |
| Long-term lull | 45% | $90~110 | 4,800~5,500 range | Maintain cash balance |
| Hormuz Blockade Becomes a Reality | 35% | $120~135 | 4,200~4,500 plunge | Defensive assets + cash |
※ The probabilities and figures above represent a scenario analysis projecting past geopolitical crisis cases (Gulf War, Iraq War) onto current index levels and do not constitute investment advice.
4So what do you want me to do now? — Portfolios by Personality Type
“Should I sell everything now?” “Or should I buy more?” Both are extremes.
The important thing is adjusting the weighting to match your risk tolerance . Please refer to the table below and compare it to your own situation.
| Asset items | Aggressive investment type (30s · Surplus Funds) | Risk-neutral type (40s · Family) | Stability-seeking type (50s and older) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Stocks (Korea · USA) | 65% | 45% | 25% |
| 🥇 Safe haven assets (Gold, Dollar) | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| 💵 Cash (CMA·MMF) | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| ⚡ Alternative Investments (Oil & Defense) | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Dollar ETFs (e.g., TIGER US Dollar Futures) are structured to generate profit as the exchange rate rises.
When the won-dollar exchange rate is above 1,500 won, it is also a strategy to exchange a portion of your dollar assets and set them aside as funds to purchase domestic blue-chip stocks (such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ).
However, strictly approach
환전 타이밍 in installments. 
5 3 Things to Do Right Now
We have already performed a complex analysis. Now, we will narrow it down to just three things that actually need to be done .
Secure over 15% in cash — Right now
Currently, the KOSPI (5,487) and S&P 500 (6,632) are at levels that do not yet fully reflect geopolitical risks.
Move at least 15% of your total portfolio to a CMA or MMF.
This is not a loss, but rather securing 'ammo to pick up when dropping' .
Hedge your defense and energy portfolios to around 5%.
Paradoxically, when war breaks out, defense stocks (such as Hanwha Aerospace and LIG Nex1) and energy-related stocks rise.
Even if the expression “war benefits” is uncomfortable, this is part of risk management.
Energy ETFs act as a buffer when oil prices break through $120.
Stick to the -7% stop-loss line for cyclical stocks.
Cyclical sectors such as automobiles, steel, and chemicals are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical crises.
Mechanically cut your losses when the price reaches -7% based on the purchase price.
"It will go up someday" is the most dangerous thought in a situation like this.
If net selling by foreign investors exceeds 1 trillion won for five consecutive trading days, the rebound in the KOSPI is likely to be delayed until after the second quarter.
In this phase, 'wait and see + keep cash' is a better choice than 'split buying'.
Protecting your assets rather than being greedy for higher returns is the right answer in this market right now.
Conclusion — Now is the time for 'defense', not 'attack'
In the stock market, there are times to attack and times to defend.
March 2026. Now is clearly the time for defense .
The scarier the market, the more objectively you must look at the numbers.
If the blockade of Hormuz becomes a reality, oil prices of $120 and the KOSPI in the 4,200 range cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, if the negotiations are concluded, a rebound to 5,800–6,200 is also possible.
In any scenario, a person holding cash + dollars + a small amount of hedge assets
Ultimately, you can seize the opportunity in the best position.
Open your account app right now, and if your cash allocation is less than 15%, start rebalancing today.
The market gives opportunities to those who are prepared when things get scary. Always.
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How this content was produced
Aleph's research AI agent assisted with collecting and analyzing public data, creating charts and visuals, and structuring the draft. Davar personally reviewed and edited the sources, figures, reasoning, and final conclusions.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not personalized investment advice or an individual stock recommendation. Read the full disclaimer
Davar
Davar builds and operates Aleph's research AI agent and writes and reviews analysis on macroeconomic developments and AI industry trends.
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